Forex

March 02, 2025

USD/JPY forecast: Bullish exposure to yen hits record high – COT report

Futures traders have continued to pile into long Japanese yen bets, with large speculators pushing their net-long exposure to a record high. But with USD/JPY holding above the December low and sentiment pointing to an extreme, perhaps USD/JPY can muster more of a bounce before its breaks back below 149.
Commodities COT Forex Gold Market Sentiment USD/JPY
March 01, 2025

EUR/USD Outlook: Ukraine, Tariffs, ECB and NFP all in focus

After Zelensky clashed with Trump in an extraordinary exchange in the Oval Office, investors priced out the chances for a speedy agreement, with Trump telling the Ukrainian president to "make a deal or we're out" as he was told to leave the White House abruptly. The EUR/USD outlook is subject to increased uncertainty as we head towards a busy week ahead.
EUR/USD EUR/USD Weekly Outlook Forex Trade Ideas Trade War
February 28, 2025

Forex Seasonality – March 2025: USD/JPY Bounce Potential Amidst Quieter Price Action?

March has historically been USD/JPY’s 3rd strongest month since the Bretton Woods agreement, raising hopes of a bounce after February’s washout.
AUD/USD EUR/USD Forex GBP USD USD CAD USD/JPY
February 27, 2025

USD Soars, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, slide on ‘Pricey’ GDP Figures Ahead of PCE

I suspect traders will be particularly sensitive to any uptick in today's PCE inflation figures, in light of the higher prices seen in the revised GDP figures. And that could send AUD/USD lower for a sixth day and EUR/USD head for 103 while the USD continues its ascent.
APAC session AUD/USD EUR/USD Forex Trade Ideas Trade War USD CAD
February 26, 2025

EUR/USD Outlook: Can the pair stage clean breakout above 1.05?

A softer US economic backdrop and a drop in bond yields point to a weaker outlook for the dollar, potentially countering any lingering support from Trump’s inflationary policies. The EUR/USD outlook could take a big boost should we see some progress towards the Ukraine peace process.
EUR/USD Forex Trade Ideas
February 20, 2025

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Rallies Despite Geopolitical Risks Ahead of PMIs

EUR/USD is poised for a potential breakout if PMIs come in better-than-expected; in that scenario, a quick continuation toward the key 1.0600 level is likely.
EUR/USD Forex Russia Russia Ukraine conflict Technical analysis
February 20, 2025

USDJPY Drops to 150, EURUSD Holds Ahead of Flash PMIs

USDJPY retested the 150 zone for the first time since December 2024, alongside a rise in 10-year government bond yields to 16-year highs. Meanwhile, EURUSD remains above 1.04 ahead of upcoming Flash PMI releases.
BoJ EUR/USD FOMC minutes Forex USD/JPY
February 19, 2025

EUR/USD forecast: Euro eases on Trump’s tariffs threat but Ukraine optimism remains key driver

With peace talks ongoing, the tariff threat has yet to weigh significantly on FX markets. However, in the months ahead, the implications for the ECB, the broader economy, and the euro could be far more pronounced. For now, though, markets appear only a little concerned, and the recent risk-on rally is keeping the EUR/USD forecast skewed slightly to the upside.
EUR/USD Forex Trade Ideas Trade War
February 18, 2025

EUR/USD outlook: Currency Pair of the Week – February 18, 2025

Markets are lacking any concrete bearish drivers for the greenback, which has allowed it to stage a bit of recovery along with bond yields. Still, the near-term EUR/USD outlook has improved, and I think the risks are now skewed to the upside for the pair, which I think is still heading north of the 1.05 handle in the coming days.
Currency pair of the week EUR/USD Forex Trade Ideas
February 14, 2025

EUR/USD forecast: Forex Friday – February 14, 2025

The EUR/USD forecast has improved a little this week. Not because we have seen any major improvements in European data or a sharp deterioration in US data, but more so because Trump’s reciprocal tariffs won’t be applied immediately after all. Instead, they are set to take effect in April. What’s more, Trump’s tone was far from combative.
EUR/USD Forex Forex Friday Trade Ideas Trade War
February 13, 2025

EUR/USD forecast: Ukraine war optimism countered by reciprocal tariffs fears

Despite struggling today, the EUR/USD forecast has improved a little, owing to optimism about the end of Ukraine war. PPI and jobless claims are up next.
EUR/USD Forex Trade Ideas Trade War
February 11, 2025

EUR/USD forecast: Euro rebounds but pressure remains amid tariff threats

The US dollar weakened slightly against most major currencies except the yen, though the overarching trend for the greenback retains a modestly bullish bias. The EUR/USD forecast is thus still modestly bearish, even if the pair has shown a slight rebound from around the 1.0300 handle.
EUR/USD Forex Trade Ideas Trade War