• Gold outlook dims short-term but longer-term trend still bullish
• US-China tariff truce lifts risk appetite, weighing on safe havens
• Next support around $3,200; then $3167

The US-China tariff truce was exactly the kind of news risk markets were craving—and it delivered. Equities ripped higher, the US dollar flexed some muscle, and safe havens like gold got left behind. The yellow metal slid over 3% as traders rotated out of defensive plays. But while the short-term gold outlook looks shaky, the longer-term case for the bulls hasn’t disappeared. It’s just taking a breather.

Stocks soar, gold slumps—what now?

Markets cheered the agreement between the US and China to roll back tariffs for 90 days. US levies on Chinese imports dropped from 145% to 30%, while China’s tariffs on US goods fell from 125% to 10%. That’s a serious de-escalation, and the relief rally was fast and furious. US futures popped, global equities joined the party, and gold… well, it did what safe havens do in good times: it dropped.

Add a resurgent dollar into the mix, and it’s no surprise gold got knocked lower. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated assets less attractive, and gold took the brunt of that. But before we call the top for gold, it’s worth zooming out. The rally that carried gold higher started well before the trade war drama. And while this truce helps risk sentiment now, it doesn’t erase broader macro concerns about global growth and inflation.

Gold Outlook: near-term pain likely to persist

The market may be in celebration mode now, but the euphoria could fade as the reality of ongoing negotiations sets in. There’s a 90-day window for further talks, and any sign of friction could send risk appetite back into reverse. In the near term, though, gold is likely to stay under pressure.

Price action has turned somewhat bearish with a couple of lower highs. The key level to watch net is at $3,200, which has held for now. A clean break below that could open the door to a deeper pullback towards $3,150 or even $3,000. But even so, unless gold then goes on to start printing a clear pattern of lower lows and fails to bounce from these zones, the broader bullish structure will remain in place.

Source: TradingView.com

On the flip side, resistance is building near $3,269-$3,275 on the gold chart, with $3,360 and $3,400 marking the next major upside targets. A push through those levels could reignite momentum and set up a retest of the record high near $3,500.

Macro Data in Focus

This week’s US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey could shake things up further. Inflation was one of the big risks tied to tariffs, so the sharp reduction in levies might actually ease some of that pressure going forward. If inflation expectations start cooling and growth fears reduce, that’s a combo that could keep gold undermined.

Bottom line? The short-term gold outlook has clearly turned bearish, but the longer-term story still holds potential. Safe havens may be out of favour today, but they have a funny way of bouncing back when sentiment shifts. For now, though, the bullish story has to take a back seat.

— Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R