Key Events

• Indian festive demand, tariff uncertainty, and rate-cut bets are boosting gains on XAUUSD.
• Nasdaq remains pressured by tariff uncertainty, despite its strong recovery above 22,700.

Tariff negotiations involving Trump are still ongoing in search of favorable terms. These include threats of a 35% tariff on Switzerland, 25% on India for importing Russian oil, 20% on Taiwan (which is pressuring the tech sector), and 15% on the EU — in addition to the universal baseline of 10%. This climate of uncertainty naturally boosts haven demand for gold while suppressing risk appetite in U.S. indices until price action and headlines provide clarity.

Meanwhile, China is facing a unique deadline on August 12, which could affect global market sentiment and geopolitical dynamics. A key point of contention for the U.S. is the purchase of Russian oil — a dispute similar to that with India — as Trump aims both to end the war in Ukraine and to realign oil markets with favorable trade terms.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

Gold Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Gold’s price action is currently fluctuating above the trendline connecting higher lows from May 2025, potentially aiming for the trendline from December 2024, which aligns with the 2025 peak at 3,500. A firm hold above the 3,400 and 3,450 levels could accelerate a move back toward the 3,500 record, with potential for further gains toward new highs at 3,780 and 4,000, respectively.

On the downside, a close below 3,340 may lead to a pullback to 3,280 for a possible rebound, or even a deeper retracement toward 3,230 and 3,130.

Nasdaq Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Similar to gold, the Nasdaq is trading below the trendline connecting the consecutive lows from April 2025. However, the latest decline rebounded from a strong support at 22,700. Price action has reclaimed the 23,000 level, which may suggest a positive tone, but a clean close above 23,300 is likely needed to boost the index toward 23,500. From there, price may either pull back or continue an extended rally toward 24,000 and 24,400.

On the downside, if price falls back below 22,700, risks increase for a move toward the previous significant peak from 2025 near 22,400 and 22,200.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X:@Rh_waves