Key Events

• Trump and China extend tariff negotiations for another 90 days, slightly relieving markets
• U.S. CPI results are set to impact Fed rate cut expectations and the dollar’s stability above the 98 support

Markets are currently trading within neutral patterns, with momentum indicators also reflecting a neutral stance. Prices remain range-bound between key support and resistance levels as investors digest recent tariff developments and assess the U.S. dollar’s recovery potential ahead of the upcoming CPI release and its implications for Fed policy.

The latest CPI print showed an unexpected increase to 2.7%, while labor market data came in below expectations — both contributing to increased dollar volatility. Some of this uncertainty may be clarified with the release of July’s CPI report.

As a result, gold is hovering near 3350, EURUSD is struggling to clear the 1.17 level, and the Nasdaq remains just below its 23,700-record high — all pointing to a cautious tone in risk sentiment as markets await confirmation from today’s data.

Technical Outlook: Quantifying Uncertainties

EURUSD Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

In line with the dollar’s hold, EURUSD is trading between 1.1580 support and 1.17 resistance, forming a bullish rebound from its 200+ pip drop in July. A clean hold above 1.17 may extend gains toward the 1.18 resistance, with further upside possible toward the 2021 highs, with key levels in sight at 1.20 and 1.24.

On the downside, if the DXY recovery continues, EURUSD may face selling pressure below 1.1580, potentially pulling prices toward 1.1450 and 1.1380. A confirmed break of those levels could open the way for a deeper decline toward 1.12 and 1.11, where renewed bullish positioning may re-emerge.

Gold Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Gold has remained in a consolidation phase since April 2025, following its record high of 3500, trading within a narrowing range between 3450 resistance and 3260 support. With tariff-related news easing, price action has softened slightly but continues to hold within the consolidation zone near 3350, awaiting confirmation from the CPI print to either reinforce dollar weakness and rate cut expectations or reverse the current narrative.

Technically, a clean hold above 3400 and 3450 could extend the rally beyond the 3500 record, toward the 3780 level first, and the 4000 checkpoint second.

To the downside, a close below 3260 would open further risk toward 3130 and 2980, potentially offering another long-term accumulation zone.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves