Key Events:

• Eurozone and UK reinforce support for Ukraine amid US-Russia-Ukraine peace deal negotiations
• Bitcoin rebounds above 92,000 following Trump’s mention of a strategic crypto reserve
• Trade war risks and key economic data releases this week fuel market uncertainty and volatility risks

Geopolitical Developments: Eurozone and Ukraine’s Strategic Moves

Following Trump and Zelensky’s dispute on Friday, which disrupted a proposed peace deal involving Ukraine’s mineral exports in exchange for US security guarantees, the EU and UK held an emergency security summit in London to reaffirm their support for Ukraine.

In response to Trump’s diplomatic stance with Putin, the EU has fast-tracked its defense initiatives, aiming to enhance security and establish at least a temporary ceasefire to facilitate further negotiations.

Bitcoin Surges Above 90,000 on Strategic Crypto Reserve Plans

In addition to trade war risks and geopolitical tensions in the first week of March, Trump’s announcement of a strategic crypto reserve—which includes Solana, XRP, Cardano, Bitcoin, and Ethereum—triggered a significant rally in the crypto market.

Interestingly, around this time last year, Bitcoin was also rallying back toward its previous record highs near 70,000. However, upside potential remains uncertain, as trade war risks and economic concerns persist. If peace negotiations progress and economic indicators align positively, Bitcoin could challenge its previous all-time highs or even set new records in 2025.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

EURUSD Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD has consolidated within a triangle pattern below the 1.0530 resistance, which it has yet to break through in 2025. The pair remains above the lower boundary of the triangle and 1.0360 support, with potential to retest 1.05.

Bullish Scenario: A close above 1.0530 could drive gains toward 1.0620, 1.0730, and 1.0850.

Bearish Scenario: A close below 1.0360 could push the pair back toward 1.0250, 1.0130, 1.0000, and 0.9900.

Bitcoin Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool to Bitcoin’s August 2024 low of 49,577 and January 2025 high of 109,350, the retracement has respected key Fibonacci ratios. The latest rebound from the 50% Fib retracement level at 79,000 coincided with Trump’s announcement of the strategic crypto reserve, pushing Bitcoin back toward the 0.272 Fibonacci level at 93,000.

Additionally, the recent low aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the corrective pattern formed between the December 2024 high at 108,364, January 2025 low at 89,150, and January 2025 high at 109,350.

• Bullish Scenario: A sustained hold above 93,000 could extend the rally toward the 100,000 checkpoint and potentially the record high near 109,350.
• Bearish Scenario: A close below 86,000 could lead to further declines toward the 79,000-support, followed by the critical 72,000 level, which aligns with the 0.610 Fibonacci retracement.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves