EUR/USD slips below 1.17 with Ttump- Zelensky meeting in focus

EUR/USD is under pressure on Monday ahead of a key meeting between President Trump, Ukrainian leaders Zelensky, and EU leaders on a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

Trump is expected to press Zelensky for a rapid settlement following talks with Putin on Friday. Trump has indicated that Zelensky would need to give up Crimea and join NATO in order to secure peace in his country.

The meeting comes as European gas prices hit their lowest level since July 2024, down 3% ahead of the summit. Falling energy prices could bring inflation lower still.

Meanwhile, the attention will also turn to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium, as well as the release of Fed minutes on Wednesday. The market is pricing in around an 85% probability of a September rate cut.

In Europe, the ECB is close to ending its monetary policy easing cycle. The central bank left rates unchanged after eight rate cuts since 2022. Another rate cut later this year could still be on the cards.

Data this week includes eurozone PMIs for signs of momentum after the euro area GDP grew just 0.1% quarter on quarter in Q2 and inflation held steady at 2%.

EUR/USD forecast – technical analysis

EUR/USD has recovered from the 1.14 low but failed to close above 1.17, a well-defined falling trendline, and the next target for bulls. A break above 1.17 could spur a run toward 1.18, the late July high, and 1.1830, the 2025 high, come into focus.

Failure to break above the trendline could see the price stall lower. A break below 1.1635, the 50 SMA could open the door to 1.1580 support, the mid-July low and April high.

GBP/USD steady ahead of UK CPI data & Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium this week

• UK CPI data on Wednesday to hold at 3.7%
• Fed Powell to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday
• GBP/USD consolidates at 1.3550

GBP/USD is holding steady at the start of the week, Trading in a tight range around 1.3550 as investors look ahead to a key week for data and central bank outlooks from the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Ridiculous, the pound is steady as investors await the release of UK inflation data for July on Wednesday, which is expected to remain steady at 3.7% YoY, still significantly above the BoE’s 2% target.

Signs of price pressures remaining persistent would likely keep the Bank of England committed to a gradual path of rate cuts. After cutting rates by 25 basis points in the August meeting, the market is not pricing in another rate cut from the central bank until February next year.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is looking at the Jackson Hole symposium scheduled for August 21- 23rd for further clues on the path of monetary policy for the Federal Reserve.

No, sweet Daisy showed CPI was cooler than forecast, but PPI came in hotter than expected. While inflation is giving mixed signals, signs of weakness in the US jobs market could keep the Fed on track for a September rate cut.

According to the FedWatch tool the market is pricing in an 85% chance of a September cut and sees two cuts by the end of the year. Given this pricing, anything less than dovish from Powell could see the USD rebound.

GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis

GBP/USD broke out of the falling wedge pattern, rising towards 1.36, the late July high. The near-term trend remains bullish while the price holds above the 1.3420 trendline support and the 20 SMA.

The RSI is above 50 but points lower. Should fresh bullish momentum emerge helping the RSI above 60.00, this could help GBP/USD rise above 1.36 to create a higher high and bring 1.37 into focus.

Meanwhile a break below 1.3420 and 1.34 could act as key supports.