Key Events:

• Gold eases below the $3,200 mark amid rising risk appetite
• EURUSD maintains its rebound above 1.12 on weak dollar sentiment
• U.S. PPI, Retail sales data, and Fed Speech are due today and may test the DXY’s trend above 100.30
• Walmart earnings expected today — a key gauge of U.S. consumer strength and equity market sentiment

Key market drivers include Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming comments later today and additional updates on Trump’s trade initiatives. If positive headlines continue to dominate, soft data and earnings may remain in the background, while charts continue to reflect longer-term positioning.

Gold remains vulnerable to the downside if geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties ease, while equities could extend gains on improved sentiment.In the currency market, uncertainty persists around the dollar’s momentum, with EURUSD maintaining a bullish structure.

Key technical levels will be crucial in assessing the probability of the next trend direction.

EURUSD Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Following soft CPI data, EURUSD is consolidating between the 1.1070 support and 1.1270 resistance. The longer-term bias remains bullish, with key short-term levels to monitor:

Bullish scenario: A confirmed hold above 1.1270 may open the way for further gains toward 1.1380, 1.1430, and eventually 1.1570.

Bearish scenario: A break and hold below 1.1070 could trigger a deeper correction toward 1.0980, 1.0890, and 1.0730.

Gold Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

On the monthly chart, gold is trading below the upper boundary of its long-term ascending channel, aligning with the trendline connecting the 2016 and 2020 lows. With momentum showing extended overbought signals on the higher timeframe, a potential reversal pattern may be forming.

Bearish scenario: A sustained break below $3,100 could push gold lower toward the $2,900–$2,800 zone.

Bullish scenario: A recovery and hold above $3,350 and $3,430 could reignite the uptrend in line with the cup-and-handle formation, targeting $3,780 and $4,000.

Gold Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Increased market risk appetite has pressured gold prices below the $3,200 barrier. Price action is now aligned with the trendline that connects the series of higher lows from December 2024 to April 2025, currently near $3,120.

Bearish scenario: A clean break below $3,090 could extend losses toward $2,980, $2,880, and $2,820

Bullish scenario: If the trendline holds, gold may rebound toward $3,270, $3,350, and $3,430, with the potential to retest the $4,000 mark in an extended rally

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

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