Key Events This Week:

• U.S. Dollar Index remains weak near 3-year lows
• GBPUSD faces volatility risks ahead of the UK Claimant Count (Tuesday) and CPI data (Wednesday)
• April monetary policy meetings kick off with the ECB and BoC, likely to shape market sentiment amid ongoing trade war risks
• Gold maintains safe-haven appeal, holding above $3,200

US Dollar Index Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to show weakness, hovering near 3-year lows, with momentum indicators sinking further into oversold territory—raising the risk of a potential reversal.If the index holds above the 99 level, a rebound may occur, targeting resistance at 100.50, 101.30, and 103.30.

However, sustained weakness below 99 could push the index toward 98, 96, and 94, aligning with the lower boundary of its long-term uptrend channel established since the 2008 lows.

GBPUSD Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Recent UK data showed a GDP increase from 0.0% to 0.5%, helping to stabilize the pound above the 1.30 level. With continued dollar weakness, GBPUSD is trading near its 2025 highs around 1.3190.Price action remains well above long-standing consolidation barriers dating back to 2008, though it has yet to surpass 2024 highs.

• Bullish Scenario: Holding above 1.32 could accelerate gains toward 1.3270–1.33, then 1.34, and 1.3540.
• Bearish Scenario: A close below 1.3140 may trigger a retracement toward the 1.3020–1.2980 zone, with deeper declines potentially reaching 1.2870 and 1.2780—retesting the upper boundary of the long-term trendline connecting lower highs from 2008, 2014, and 2021.

Gold Outlook: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Gold maintains its safe-haven appeal, holding firmly above the $3,200 mark. The current trend tested resistance near $3,250, and a decisive breakout could drive further gains toward $3,290–$3,300, fueled by rising trade war tensions and ongoing dollar weakness.

Downside Risks:If the dollar reverses or U.S.–China trade talks show progress, a drop below $3,200 may lead to pullbacks toward $3,190 and $3,170. A deeper decline could trigger a broader correction toward $3,100 and $3,090, helping to reset overbought momentum on higher time frames.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @RH_waves